GDC: Treyarch Community Manager: "I am not impressed with OnLive"
Josh Olin aka JD_2020 the Treyarch Community Manager spoke out today against OnLive the "future of gaming" which was announced yesterday at GDC. Read More:
You can read the original posting by Olin here.
For all the GDC related news click here.
Okay, so I watched the OnLive coverage at GDC, and have been doing some reading. Before you read my little critique of their service, please watch their presentation:
Now if it doesn't make sense to you how that works, don't worry - I was the same way. And I still am a little confused to be honest... They were being very ambiguous with precisely just how the service works, and it really does look awfully gimmicky to me. So here is me using all I know about games, technology, and the Internet trying to interpret what OnLive is.
It sounds to me like OnLive is going to be no better than those little On-Demand game "consoles" in some hotels where it's just a controller hooked up to something behind the TV, and it streams little low-tech, low-end games through the network to the TV. Very little, if any, processing will happen on that OnLive micro-console. Instead, they will try to crunch all the game data on remote server farms, and stream the video output to their micro-console device across the network.
So it would appear as though OnLive is attempting to livestream a tremendous amount of video data for a game in realtime, across vast networking distances. Not likely going to go over so well... You think your games can be laggy now huh? Boy you just wait...
They were very vague on compatibility - but I would bet a kidney that there will be no cross-platform compatibility. So if you are playing Triple Play 2009 on OnLive (if a game of that caliber is even offered), you will only be able to play with other OnLive subscribers, not with the Xbox 360.
So what's wrong with that? Nothing, really. Oh wait - they are trying to break into a market that even Apple would have a hard time doing, and I just can't help but think they have a very steep hill to climb... And that hill is covered with landmines... And recession.
What's wrong with OnLive is they are betting that the Internet is going to be able to support this model, which it simply will not. Think about Verizon FIOS; arguably the fastest consumer network provider you can find. You get backbone fiber optic speed for downloading, and a pretty significant amount of upstream bandwidth as well. However, what about the "other guy" you are playing against? The rate at which a broadband service like FIOS is being adopted is far too slow. This is almost the equivalent of retrofitting every gas station in the country with hydrogen fuel stations to make alternative or hydrogen fuel cars a reality - it is going to take a long loooong time. OnLive is about 10 years ahead of itself.
One day, when we all have Gigabit networks, this kind of service may work. But until then, the "games" you'll be playing via OnLive are things like Scrabble, Uno, iShoot, etc. You won't be playing your Medal of Honor's or Resident Evil's anytime soon.
Now don't get me wrong - it's not that OnLive as a company will fail. It is good to think 10 years out in advance. What do they gain by launching now then? Well they'll get to iron out all their distribution problems they'll run into, they get to start creating an install base of casual gamers, and won't really have that big of a target on their backs for some time to come. When the time arrives where true AAA game video data can be streamed across a network that quickly, they will have their day.
However, if you are getting overly-excited about this new service, take a breather and relax. A hardcore gamer isn't going to be using OnLive for a while. My kids may be using it, but not me.
So why then am I not excited for OnLive? Because their presentation at GDC seemed too much like they were over-selling their product. They were making claims about AAA games being hosted concurrently when they release to retailers... That's 10 years away remember. That's not "Winter of 2009" when the service launches. When the service launches, you'll see the simple casual games as I described above. I think that it's good to share your ambitions with an audience of game developers and gamers, but frame it in the right context. Make it clear that ultimately you may be offering that kind of streaming game service, but it won't come before the networking infrastructure is there, and the development community designs their games around that technology.
Now if it doesn't make sense to you how that works, don't worry - I was the same way. And I still am a little confused to be honest... They were being very ambiguous with precisely just how the service works, and it really does look awfully gimmicky to me. So here is me using all I know about games, technology, and the Internet trying to interpret what OnLive is.
It sounds to me like OnLive is going to be no better than those little On-Demand game "consoles" in some hotels where it's just a controller hooked up to something behind the TV, and it streams little low-tech, low-end games through the network to the TV. Very little, if any, processing will happen on that OnLive micro-console. Instead, they will try to crunch all the game data on remote server farms, and stream the video output to their micro-console device across the network.
So it would appear as though OnLive is attempting to livestream a tremendous amount of video data for a game in realtime, across vast networking distances. Not likely going to go over so well... You think your games can be laggy now huh? Boy you just wait...
They were very vague on compatibility - but I would bet a kidney that there will be no cross-platform compatibility. So if you are playing Triple Play 2009 on OnLive (if a game of that caliber is even offered), you will only be able to play with other OnLive subscribers, not with the Xbox 360.
So what's wrong with that? Nothing, really. Oh wait - they are trying to break into a market that even Apple would have a hard time doing, and I just can't help but think they have a very steep hill to climb... And that hill is covered with landmines... And recession.
What's wrong with OnLive is they are betting that the Internet is going to be able to support this model, which it simply will not. Think about Verizon FIOS; arguably the fastest consumer network provider you can find. You get backbone fiber optic speed for downloading, and a pretty significant amount of upstream bandwidth as well. However, what about the "other guy" you are playing against? The rate at which a broadband service like FIOS is being adopted is far too slow. This is almost the equivalent of retrofitting every gas station in the country with hydrogen fuel stations to make alternative or hydrogen fuel cars a reality - it is going to take a long loooong time. OnLive is about 10 years ahead of itself.
One day, when we all have Gigabit networks, this kind of service may work. But until then, the "games" you'll be playing via OnLive are things like Scrabble, Uno, iShoot, etc. You won't be playing your Medal of Honor's or Resident Evil's anytime soon.
Now don't get me wrong - it's not that OnLive as a company will fail. It is good to think 10 years out in advance. What do they gain by launching now then? Well they'll get to iron out all their distribution problems they'll run into, they get to start creating an install base of casual gamers, and won't really have that big of a target on their backs for some time to come. When the time arrives where true AAA game video data can be streamed across a network that quickly, they will have their day.
However, if you are getting overly-excited about this new service, take a breather and relax. A hardcore gamer isn't going to be using OnLive for a while. My kids may be using it, but not me.
So why then am I not excited for OnLive? Because their presentation at GDC seemed too much like they were over-selling their product. They were making claims about AAA games being hosted concurrently when they release to retailers... That's 10 years away remember. That's not "Winter of 2009" when the service launches. When the service launches, you'll see the simple casual games as I described above. I think that it's good to share your ambitions with an audience of game developers and gamers, but frame it in the right context. Make it clear that ultimately you may be offering that kind of streaming game service, but it won't come before the networking infrastructure is there, and the development community designs their games around that technology.
You can read the original posting by Olin here.
For all the GDC related news click here.